The changes in the age composition of European populations in the last century have presented major challenges not only to the future of welfare states. In the light of demographic forecasts these challenges will likely become even more pronounced as the so called ‘babyboomers’ approach retirement.
The objective of the conference, stated by CORNELIUS TORP (Halle/Florence), was to explore and discuss the political, economic, social and cultural consequences of demographic ageing. Given the multiple facets of ageing societies, as Torp described, this aim could only be realized from an interdisciplinary perspective including political and social scientists, demographers, economic geographers and historians among the conference speakers. At the same time, according to Torp, given the long-lasting character of population ageing itself, the analysis of its ramifications required an approach combining studies of recent developments with forecasts of future trends and a strong historical dimension.
Thereby the conference was centered on four major themes: First, the demographic and economic consequences of ageing were explored. Secondly, the conference focused on the development of pension systems while particularly focusing on the determinants and conditions of reform. Third, the different images and representations of old age and the relationship between work and retirement were explored. The fourth major theme was the question of intergenerational justice and inequalities.
One of the recurring questions has surely been what is meant by expressions such as ‘old’ or ‘ageing’. As it became clear from the discussions, no simple answer seems to exist for a number of reasons.
On the one hand, the meaning ‘old’ has been subject to continuing changes in the course of the last century as a consequence of the significant improvements in life expectancy and health as WOLFGANG LUTZ (Vienna) highlighted. While traditionally ‘old age’ mostly referred to the time after exit from the labour market, this definition may not be adequate anymore according to Lutz since a 65 year old person today could expect to live much longer in average than someone in the same age fifty years ago.
On the other hand, also the economic life-cycle has changed remarkably in the last decades as RONALD LEE (Berkeley) illustrated. For example in the US private consumption nowadays remains on levels equivalent to that of mid-ages until age 80, while until 1960 consumption decreased steadily after age 60. According to Lee, this pattern clearly shows how older individuals have become ever more important as consumers. Another finding highlighted by Lee was that spending in education would have increased sharply underscoring that future ageing cohorts would have increasing levels of human capital.
The issue of education has also been central to Lutz arguing that traditional definitions of age and gender would be losing their ‘deterministic’ power while educational attainment was becoming an ever more important determinant of individuals’ health. Therefore researchers and policy makers should take into account educational differentials, for example regarding life expectancy, and adapt definitions of ‘ageing’. One way which Lutz proposed would be to use the proportion of the population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less as an alternative to the conventional measure of ageing like the share of the population over 60.
The second main theme of the conference was the development of pension systems as well as the question under which conditions the latter have been changed in the course of the last century.
In this context, much of the research has been dominated by the concept of ‘path dependency’. Although the latter may be a helpful analytical tool for studying institutional change, there has been agreement amongst the discussants that it falls short in explaining the growing evidence of changes in pension regimes, for example regarding workplace pensions as GORDON CLARK (Oxford) highlighted. In this line HUGH PERBERTON (Bristol) suggested that in Britain changes in the pension system represent path dependent ‘lock-in’ effects which were mainly driven by highly individualized ‘pensions contracts’. As a consequence the system would have become ever more complex because of the tendency to add new parallel features.
The conditions for systemic reform have been discussed in detail by KENT WEAVER (Washington), who emphasized that changes in pensions-regimes are relatively common with nine out of fourteen industrialised countries having had at least one change in the last decades. Nevertheless these changes would not come as fundamental changes but rather as adaptations of existing systems depending on reform-options. One central element for reform identified by Weaver would be the balance between positive and negative feedback effects. For example in pension regimes where universal flat-rate benefits are dominant (e.g. New Zealand), strong negative feedbacks may arise from associated budgetary stress and possible disincentives to work beyond the age of eligibility.
From a rational-choice perspective, as JULIA LYNCH (Pennsylvania) stressed, one would assume that elderly voters or related interest groups should be the main force behind reforms of pension systems. Although this might seem intuitive as older persons should have a common interest in generous pension systems, empirical evidence in support of this view remains very limited as Lynch argued. One reason brought forward by Lynch is that the group of older persons is highly individualized and heterogeneous for example with regard to their income or education. Thus cleavages cutting across age groups seem to be better predictors of social policy than age itself.
This third focus of the conference has been the different images and representations of old age and the relationship between work and retirement.
HANS-PETER BLOSSFELD (Bamberg) and SANDRA BUCHHOLZ (Bamberg) followed up on the previous discussion by underlining the recent trend in Europe of abolishing early-retirement provisions, raising the mandatory retirement age as well as the strengthening of the private pension-tier. Thereby one can identify a trend towards increasing employment rates of older workers in nearly all EU-countries. As GERHARD NAEGELE (Dortmund) argued with regard to Germany, this trend reversal is linked to a paradigm shift in older worker policies while quoting demographic ageing and related labour shortages as well as fiscal pressures as the main ‘negative feedback’ effects. However Naegele was sceptical since so far no comprehensive policy approach aiming at promoting employability of an ageing workforce has been implemented.
Against this background Blossfeld and Buchholz warned that rising employment rates of older workers could distract from the question how far these developments lead to new social risks at later life. According to Blossfeld and Buchholz this could be particularly the case because lower qualified older workers with poor health may not be able to meet the standards of postponed retirement. Based on their comparative empirical analyses they found an increase in social inequalities in particular in countries with originally strong early retirement tradition (e.g. the Netherlands and Germany) having largely privatized and individualized (labour) market risks.
The issue of social inequalities thereby seems central also when looking at the so called ‘active ageing’ paradigm. Thus while the narrative of ‘active’ and ‘productive’ ageing would be explicitly disseminated by politicians and widely adapted in the media – as STEPHAN LESSENICH (Jena) showed for Germany – individuals themselves seem to be well aware of the material preconditions allowing them (or not) to be ‘active’ at older ages. By comparing medial with individual discourses Lessenich found that the discourse of elderly people would be neither just in line with nor in strict opposition to public discourse but rather effectively rebuilding and indeed restraining the hegemonic narratives of ‘active’ and ‘productive ageing’.
Fourthly the conference concentrated on questions of intergenerational justice. Debates about intergenerational justice have recently become particularly pronounced in Britain in the climate of an economic recession and massive cuts in public expenditure as both JOHN MACNICOL (London) and JOHN HIGGS (London) emphasised. As Macnicol argued, the current debate in Britain should be seen as an iteration of a controversy from twenty years ago in the USA. Similar to the US experience, the recent British discussion has its roots in a lethargic labour market and in particular a growth of low-paid service jobs. Macnicol added that the recent calls of British politicians for greater generational justice aim to mask their view that all citizens, regardless of age, should be expected to support themselves through paid employment.
John Higgs stressed that when talking about intergenerational justice one should clearly differentiate if the latter refers to intergenerational relations per se or rather only to a specific cohort. Without being explicit, for Higgs the current British debate would clearly focus on the ‘babyboomers’. Thereby the ‘generational habitus’ of those cohorts would be widely associated with the rise of mass ‘consumerism’ and a lifestyle linked to leisure as well as an emphasis on personal rather than family relationships - which had led to the emergence of a new ‘selfish’ generation in the eyes of many commentators. As long as each cohort of workers and retirees had continued to do well – or even better – Higgs concluded, the conflicts had failed to materialise – something the current crisis might well change.
MARTIN KOHLI (Florence) voiced scepticism for the emergence of a ‘war between the generations’, although recognising that the current demographic developments accompanied by economic insecurity as well as welfare state retrenchment are likely to deepen generational cleavages. However their potential for mobilisation may remain limited since political institutions, such as parties or unions, and families themselves would act as mediators. With regard to intergenerational transfers Kohli showed that in terms of inter vivo financial- as well as social support-transfers European elderly parents are usually net givers.
Also with a European perspective STEFAN SVALLFORS (Umea) presented findings from the European Social Survey regarding public opinion towards issues such as elderly and family support policies while focusing on the question if the latter is rather explained by age or class locations. Svallfors’ findings suggest that class rather than age has a better predictor for opinions towards welfare state policies. For Sweden Svallfors showed that in the old as well as in the young age groups increased spending for older persons would have become more popular in the last twenty years. At the same time spending for older persons seems to be much more popular than spending for families with children across all age groups. Interestingly, over time the opinions between age groups rather have converged than diverged which could be interpreted as an indicator against fears of age-based political cleavages.
Having discussed the processes, consequences as well as challenges of 'ageing' in Europe during the 20th century, the question arises, which insights could be gained for the current century. A related question also seemed, to what extend the European experience might offer lessons to address global population ageing – being a key challenge of the 21st century as SARAH HARPER (Oxford) emphasised.
Thereby, from a demographic perspective, the future seems to be rather well predictable until about 2050 likely resulting in a reduction of the 'speed of ageing' according to Wolfgang Lutz. However, as Lutz and also Harper argued, the understanding of what constitutes 'old age' or 'ageing' would and should undergo further alterations in the light of current demographic trends.
How these notions are commonly understood and defined may have a great influence on the degree to which 'ageing' is perceived as a problem by a society and thus trigger political reforms, as it became clear from several contributions. Although some common trends regarding the reform of pension systems seem to be apparent, such as the retrenchment of workplace pensions as Gordon Clark emphasised, no simple answer seems to be available to the question which pensions system countries should adopt.
As Sarah Harper remarked, the success of societies in addressing the challenges resulting from demographic changes will mainly depend on the 'capacity to reform and adapt' social security and health care institutions as well as the wider system of social relations. Given the fact that many world regions are confronted with acute poverty and instable public institutions, this capacity may be very limited in many cases Harper concluded.
Conference Overview:
Welcome, Stefano Bartolini (EUI)
Introductory Remarks, Cornelius Torp (University of Halle/EUI)
1: Demographics of Ageing
Chair: Stefano Bartolini (EUI)
Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley): Population Ageing and the Changing Economic Life Cycle: A Global Perspective
Wolfgang Lutz (University of Vienna): Population Ageing and Education: Their Interactions in a Global Perspective
Commentary: Philippe Fargues (EUI)
Session 2: The Development of Pension Systems
Chair: Christine Arnold (University of Maastricht/EUI)
Julia Lynch (University of Pennsylvania): Age Politics and Pension System Development
Commentary: Mi Ah Schøyen (EUI)
Session 3: Pension Systems: Path Dependencies and Reforms
Chair: Raya Muttarak (EUI)
Kent Weaver (Georgetown University, Washington): Negative Feedbacks from Pension Regimes: How They Emerge and How They Matter
Hugh Pemberton (University of Bristol): Why is Pensions Reform so Hard? The Role of Contracts in the UK Pensions Crisis
Commentary: Hans W. Micklitz (EUI)
Session 4: Work and Retirement
Chair: Martina Dieckhoff (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin)
Hans-Peter Blossfeld and Sandra Buchholz (University of Bamberg): Ageing Populations, Globalization Pressure and Inequalities in Old Age: How Has Late Working Life and Retirement Changed in Modern Societies?
Commentary: Nicole Kramer (Zentrum für Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam)
Session 5: The Changing Images of Old Age
Chair: Steve Smith (EUI)
Stephan Lessenich (University of Jena): From Retirement to Active Ageing. Changing Images of ‘Old Age’ in the Late 20th Century
Gerhard Naegele (University of Dortmund): Older Workers: Images and Policies in Germany and Beyond
Commentary: Heinz-Gerhard Haupt (EUI)
Session 6: Intergenerational Justice
Chair: Cornelius Torp (University of Halle/EUI)
John Macnicol (London School of Economics): Intergenerational Equity: A View from History
Paul Higgs (University College London): Generational Justice, Generational Habitus and the ‘Problem’ of the Babyboomers
Commentary: Sven Steinmo (EUI)
Session 7: Generational Dimensions of Ageing Societies
Chair: Nadia Steiber (EUI)
Martin Kohli (EUI)): Generations in Ageing Societies: Inequalities, Cleavages, Conflicts
Stefan Svallfors (University of Umea): Age, Class, and Attitudes towards Public Policies
Commentary: Bettina Kohlrausch (University of Göttingen)
Session 8: Strategies and Policies
Chair: Desmond Dinan (George Mason University)
Gordon L. Clark (Oxford University): From Corporatism to Public Utilities: Workplace Pensions in the 21st Century
Sarah Harper (Oxford Institute of Ageing): Strategies to Address Global Ageing
Commentary: Patrick Joyce (University of Manchester)